Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Promise Turned to Dissappointment in 2008. Bring on 2009!
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Debate, Part I: Missed Opportunity
Thursday, September 25, 2008
The Current Financial "Crisis" - In Layman's Terms: no bailout necessary
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Fannie & Freddie in the rearview mirror
In keeping with the theme of this blog, I've posted an article from HNN posted back in December of 2003. While it would have been nice to have an understanding of these institutions before they failed - to therefore avert that failure, it is now too late. Please read it to gain an understanding of how we got to here.
12-08-03
What Are the Origins of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae?
By Rob Alford
Mr. Alford is a student at the
In recent months, the nation's two largest mortgage finance lenders have come under increasing scrutiny at the hands of Congress, the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The Federal National Mortgage Association, nicknamed Fannie Mae, and the Federal Home Mortgage Corporation, nicknamed Freddie Mac, have operated since 1968 as government sponsored enterprises (GSEs). This means that, although the two companies are privately owned and operated by shareholders, they are protected financially by the support of the Federal Government. These government protections include access to a line of credit through the U.S. Treasury, exemption from state and local income taxes and exemption from SEC oversight. A recent accounting scandal at Freddie Mac that resulted in the replacement of three of the company's top executives has led to mounting concerns over the privileged status these GSEs enjoy in the marketplace.
Fannie Mae was created in 1938 as part of Franklin Delano Roosevelt's New Deal. The collapse of the national housing market in the wake of the Great Depression discouraged private lenders from investing in home loans. Fannie Mae was established in order to provide local banks with federal money to finance home mortgages in an attempt to raise levels of home ownership and the availability of affordable housing.
Initially, Fannie Mae operated like a national savings and loan, allowing local banks to charge low interest rates on mortgages for the benefit of the home buyer. This lead to the development of what is now known as the secondary mortgage market. Within the secondary mortgage market, companies such as Fannie Mae are able to borrow money from foreign investors at low interest rates because of the financial support that they receive from the U.S. Government. It is this ability to borrow at low rates that allows Fannie Mae to provide fixed interest rate mortgages with low down payments to home buyers. Fannie Mae makes a profit from the difference between the interest rates homeowners pay and foreign lenders charge.
For the first thirty years following its inception, Fannie Mae held a veritable monopoly over the secondary mortgage market. In 1968, due to fiscal pressures created by the Vietnam War, Lyndon B. Johnson privatized Fannie Mae in order to remove it from the national budget. At this point, Fannie Mae began operating as a GSE, generating profits for stock holders while enjoying the benefits of exemption from taxation and oversight as well as implied government backing. In order to prevent any further monopolization of the market, a second GSE known as Freddie Mac was created in 1970. Currently, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac control about 90 percent of the nation's secondary mortgage market.
GSEs such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae, with their combination of private enterprise and public backing have experienced a period of unprecedented financial growth over the past few decades. The current assets of these two companies combine for a total that is 45 percent greater than that of the nation's largest bank.
On the other hand, their combined debt is equal to 46 percent of the current national debt. It is this combination of rapid growth and over leveraging that has lead to the current concerns of Congress, the Justice Department and the SEC with regards to the financial practices of these GSEs.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the only two Fortune 500 companies that are not required to inform the public about any financial difficulties that they may be having. In the event that there was some sort of financial collapse within either of these companies,
Friday, August 29, 2008
What A Knockout!
Even after the Saddleback Forum hosted by Rick Warren a couple of weeks ago, which artfully highlighted a glaring contrast between the leadership qualities of the two candidates, conservatives, though encouraged by the direct answers McCain gave to issues of great importance to them, were still worried. Rumors have been floating around ever since that a pro-choice VP pick was not "off the table", and with names like Ridge and Lieberman also being mentioned, there was palpable fear the base would be completely abandoned in foolish pursuit of the supposed "moderates." (By the way - how do you appeal to a swath of voters who don't seem to believe strongly in any ideology? Sounds like trying to "herd cats".)
Today was a brand new day, though. Choosing Sarah Palin as his VP running mate, was the kind of bold move that can seriously alter the script of the campaign this fall. Though an unknown to most outside of the ranks of conservative news addicts like myself, I have been introduced, and subsequently impressed with her over the past year, as she's given birth to her fifth child, and approved the construction of a new natural gas pipe line, which has afforded her some national recognition. She was mentioned as a possible VP selection many months ago, though no one seemed to give it much more than a passing note.
She was a brilliant choice for several reasons. First off, agree or disagree with her ideology, she has character and integrity, calling out her own party members on wasteful government and questionable ethics. She is very down-to-earth and easy for most Americans to relate to. She is attractive and well-spoken; friendly and engaging. Ideologically, she is very conservative, trying to make her state more self-reliant; contributing more to the nation economically than they take in government aid. She is a life-long NRA member. She is staunchly pro-life, and certainly family-oriented, living out the values she espouses. The fact that she is a woman in the historical context of this campaign, is really only the icing on the cake.
For former supporters of both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, she offers the executive experience of a governor, and the pro-business economic and social conservative bona fides that were so important, without the hard feelings supporters of either candidate might harbor for the other.
This choice only makes McCain, whom the Democrats have tried to characterize as the "third Bush term", and as old, out of touch, and no longer with the "maverick" edge that has defined him for so many years, look simply brilliant. Sarah Palin is not a "go along, to get along" type of politician, reassuring voters that she will not simply be a window dressing yes-woman. I can't imagine a more "maverick" choice in it's unpredictability. Her youth and down-to-earth personality balance out his age and cultural downsides. She couldn't be much farther outside the beltway, balancing out his lengthy legislative association.
What a way to reenergize the base, and suck all the air out of the post-DNC news cycle. What a grand slam!
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Redemption
To Huckabee's credit, he has never lashed out bitterly at his detractors, or criticized their lack of support and mischaracterizations of him. He has instead kept on plugging ahead, focused on the goals he based his campaign on, and patiently waiting for his critics to acknowledge the truth.
That patience was rewarded today, as Huckabee was finally granted his first appearance on Rush's show since the primaries. Since it is rare that Rush ever has a guest on, this appearance should be that much more meaningful. Governor Huckabee was finally able to have a conversation with Rush that allowed him to set the record straight - about the questions he had about the character and integrity of Mitt Romney, not his religion; as well as the deal that was made in West Virginia, whereby Ron Paul's supporters threw their votes to Huckabee on the final ballot to give him the win over Romney. To my ear, Rush treated the governor with respect, asking him thoughtful questions that he himself has been contemplating out loud for the past couple days, looking for Huckabee's own incite; such as if there's any contingency at the convention should a hurricane strike New Orleans while it's under way, to which the governor gave a classic, humorous response: "They'll send Pat Robertson down there to pray it off the coast" (a poking reference to Fidel Castro's "supernatural" claims).
It was certainly a moment that long time fans of Rush, and big fans of Gov. Huckabee have long been hoping and waiting for. Let's hope that the fence-mending continues!
Friday, July 11, 2008
Historical Perspective
The Loss of Independence:By Patrick J. Buchanan, July 4, 2008
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=27360
"Not until a year after Lexington did the Continental Congress muster the resolveto declare the 13 colonies free and independent states, no longer subject toParliament or Crown.
Not for five years after July 4, 1776, did George Washington's army truly attainAmerica's independence at Yorktown.
Even then, Washington and his aide Alexander Hamilton knew that the 13 states,while politically independent, were dependent upon Europe for the necessities oftheir national life. Without French ships and guns, French muskets and troops,the Americans could not have forced Gen. Cornwallis' surrender at Yorktown.
Cornwallis would have sailed away, as Gen. Howe had from Boston.
Indeed, absent the 1778 alliance with France, our Revolution would have been alonger bloodier affair and might not have succeeded.
At the Constitutional Convention of 1787, both Washington and Hamilton weredetermined to make America's political independence permanent, and to begin tocut the umbilical cord to Europe.
In the Constitution that came out of that convention, the states were prohibitedfrom imposing any tariffs on the products of other states, thus creating thegreatest common market in history, the United States of America. Second, theU.S. government was empowered to raise revenue by imposing tariffs on foreigngoods, but explicitly denied the power to impose taxes on the incomes ofAmerican citizens.
And as Hamilton set the nation onto a course that would ensure economicindependence, Washington took the actions and made the decisions that wouldassure our political independence.
First, he declared neutrality in the European wars that followed the FrenchRevolution of 1789. Second, he sought to sever the 1778 alliance with France, afeat achieved by his successor, John Adams.
Third, in his Farewell Address, the greatest state paper in U.S. history,Washington admonished his countrymen to steer clear of permanent alliances andto stay out of Europe's wars. Rarely in the 19th century did the United Statesdivert from the course set by Washington and Hamilton.
In 1812, however, James Madison, goaded by "war hawks" Henry Clay and JohnCalhoun, and ignoring the counsel of the Farewell Address, declared war onBritain and came near to seeing his nation torn apart.
Had it not been for the Duke of Wellington's preoccupation with Napoleon andAndy Jackson's rout of a British invasion army at New Orleans, America mighthave been split asunder. In 1814, New England was on the verge of seceding, andthe British had in mind splitting off the vast Louisiana territory. As it was,Madison had to flee the Washington, when a British Army came up the BladensburgRoad to burn the Capitol and Madison's White House.
After peace in 1815, however, Madison signed the Tariff Act of 1816 to preventBritish merchants from dumping goods into the United States to kill America'sinfant industries that had arisen during the war and to prevent Britishmerchants from recapturing the U.S. markets they had lost.
For most of the 19th century, the nation followed the economic policy ofHamilton and the foreign policy of Washington -- and was richly rewarded. By thefirst decade of the 20th century, America was the most independent andself-reliant republic in all of history.
And by staying out of two world wars of the 20th century until many of thebloodiest battles had been fought, America emerged in 1945 economically andpolitically independent of all other nations.
During the Cold War, however, Americans came to believe that a temporaryalliance, NATO, was necessary to prevent Joseph Stalin's empire from overrunningEurope and turning the balance of power against us. To help our wartime alliesand former enemies Japan, Germany and Italy to their feet, we set asideHamilton's policy and threw open the American market to the goods of Free Europeand Free Asia.
These should have been temporary alliances and temporary measures. Instead, theywere made permanent.
No longer free of foreign entanglements, as Thomas Jefferson urged, we now havecommitments to defend 50 countries. The old Hamiltonian policy of "ProsperAmerica First" has given way to worship of a Global Economy, at whose altars wesacrifice daily the vital interests of our own manufacturers and workers.
"Interdependence" is now the desired end of the new elite.
And so we have become again a dependent nation. We borrow from Europe and Japanto defend the oil of Europe and Japan in the Persian Gulf. We borrow from Chinato buy the goods of China. We are as dependent on foreign borrowing as we are onforeign oil.
And the questions arise: If the men of '76, who led those small and vulnerablestates, were willing to sacrifice their lives, fortunes and sacred honor forAmerica's independence, what is the matter with us?
Do we not value independence as they did? Or is it that we are simply not themen our fathers were?"
Couldn't have said it better myself - MWG
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Which way forward for conservatives?
Isn't it amazing how much different things can look after a decade? Why it seems like only yesterday that the Democrat's were dealt a stinging defeat in the 2002 mid-terms that seemed to spell the defeat of the Democrat Party itself. Then came the triumphant defeat of John Kerry in 2004, accompanied by a victory for the defense of the definition of marriage. My how the Republicans have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory!
Indeed, it's hard for conservative principles to shine like "the latest thing"- that is, until having to live several years under the malaise of misguided liberal policies. Then, it seems, every politician wants to be called a "conservative", and take advantage of the ill will of the electorate towards their political opponents.
Right now, of course, the dynamic seems to have shifted in the other direction, with the electorate early on throwing their support behind an untested candidate lacking any significant managerial experience, or much less specific experience for that matter, only reconsidering when it was too late. Perhaps that's our glimmer of hope, not that it shines very brightly.
I don't think that America has completely lost it's way. I don't believe that the conservative movement is dead yet. The majority of the Republican party still supported the conservative primary candidates in overwhelming majorities over John McCain, divided as they were among who that leading conservative candidate should be. Even among the Democrats, especially after the success of Operation Chaos, large numbers in the later states shifted heavily away from the more radical candidate, to Hillary Clinton, who, and I can't believe I'm saying this, was the more traditional, mainstream candidate.
So let's not lose heart. Our principles are grounded firmly in history, in economics, and frankly, in the Truth. It's not our principles that have failed. It was the failure to stand firmly upon those principles, forsaking popularity in the press, avoiding the tempting lure to be part of the "cutting edge" of new and "progressive" government programs designed to pander to specific influential voting blocs that would ensure re-election, and more influence.
We must instead nominate candidates who not only claim to share our ideals, but have some experience in working to defend them, finding new ways to expose their relevance in our communities and society. The temptation to compromise our principles away is very powerful, as has been made glaringly evident over the past decade. I have watched Republicans win powerful majorities both in state governments and in the Congress, only to betray their principles for short-sighted appeasement, and lose the faith of their once passionately loyal constituency. Yes, we were right after all, character really does matter.
So I exhort you conservatives; do not let your shoulders fall; do not let defeat creep into your psyche; do not give into the temptation to concede ground to your ideological opponents. Their are good conservative men raising their profiles on the field of political battle right now. Men of character like Governor Mike Huckabee, Governor Sarah Palin, Governor Bobby Jindal, and Ken Blackwell, just to name a few. These are men and women whose belief in conservatism has been tried over and again, and reinforced by success. They are standing up to adversity, inviting it some cases, and moving the ball forward.
So find that local candidate who shows promise, and get behind them. Or if you think you've got what it takes, step out into the fray yourselves. But never, never lose heart.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Who layed out this primary route?
In a wide open election year, where the Democrat Party seems to have such a clear path to victory, things don't seem to have gone as planned. Not that the Republicans have faired much better.
Neither party (at least at this point) is poised to nominate a candidate which their most loyal political base of voters would prefer. On the Republican side, John McCain is seen as more of a traitor than a friend in conservative circles, regardless of the contrast between himself and the candidates the Democrats are running. Beyond his firm stance with regard to the war in Iraq, there's not much to get excited about, considering his support for the global warmist hoax through "cap and trade" policies, among other questionable economic proposals. In fact, here on the homefront, his presidency might do more harm to our economy and individual liberty than Bush's governmental expansions. Even where there is shared ideological common ground, there is a lack of measurable active support for issues which most conservatives take very seriously.
On the other side of the spectrum, Hillary Clinton, who is leading in the popular vote tally, and has also won majorities of delegates in states like California, New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, which are populated by the most loyal base of the Democrat Party, appears to be on the losing side of the nominating process to an inexperienced, 1st term US Senator, with serious, though late-discovered, flaws. Though neither has conceded, if as predicted, Sen. Obama secures the nomination, it's going to be a very interesting general election race.
Pundits on both sides are really trumpeting the notion that the base on either side will come out to support their parties' respective candidates, regardless of the fact that they did not do so in the primary, simply to keep the other side from winning.
Truthfully, while the purported policy positions of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton do not differ significantly from one another, and therefore do not create an ideological divide that is insurmountable for opposition voters, on the Republican side, the divide is a deep chasm that John McCain will have to bridge.
Once Obama has the opportunity to restate his policy positions, which he will point out, is ultimately what is being voted on, perhaps questions about his personal ideology, which came to the forefront through the Jeremiah Wright affair will get glossed over in many Democrat minds. While it is true that Obama lacks the experience to manage such an unwieldy bureacracy as the federal government, and implement his policies effectively, his oratory skill gives him significant advantage in the perception department.
Unfortunately, I think, rather than focusing on the strengths of their candidate, the Republican party will try to energize their conservative base by turning the focus of attention on the weaknesses of their opposition. This has not necessarily been shown to be a winning strategy, unless a major outright disqualification can be demonstrated - the difficulty of such a task having been demonstrated in Bill Clinton's second term election.
So, even though neither party's base seems to be to happy with their nominee at this point; the distance of the ideological divide those nominees must bridge to win back that base, just may be the difference in November.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
What's up with gas prices?
Since it is the aim of this blog to avoid knee-jerk reactions, let's see if we can sort out the reasons why prices are climbing so quickly. It's a laundry list; and in no particular order:
- the value of the dollar is plummeting relative to other world currency
- more people across the world than ever are starting to drive
- Middle East production is near maxed out
- no new refineries being built in the U.S. - production maxed out; upkeep of current plants is expensive.
- refineries must produce different "mixes" for different regions, limiting capacity and flexibility.
Unless you haven't watched TV news, or read a news article in the last year or so (unlikely if you're reading this blog), you realize there is a credit "crisis" in this country tied to subprime mortgages, and their portion of various investment portfolios belonging to banks and other financial institutions. The amount of money the U.S. is borrowing, and our ability to pay back those loans plays a large factor in the value of our currency, which is no longer backed by a solid asset like gold. The credit crisis is forcing us to borrow more foreign money, and lower interest rates, two factors leading to our currency losing value in foreign markets. In fact, some foreign markets are refusing to accept dollars, which are losing value rapidly, and instead are requesting payment in Euros, which are currently more stable.
One of those markets is the oil market. Whereas the dollar used to be the standard by which oil prices were measured around the world; because of its recent rapid decline in value, this is no longer the case. Since the dollar is valued less, it therefore can purchase less oil. That is why a barrel of oil cost $50 dollars not that long ago, but today that same barrel costs over $100. It's not that the value of the barrel of oil has increased that significantly, it's that the value of the currency used to purchase it has decreased. This may be the most important factor affecting gas prices.
Something else to consider is increased demand around the world. While most Americans seem to be insulated from news in other parts of the world (we can thank our standard media for that), nations like India, and China, along with other Asian countries, have been rapidly building modern industrial/manufacturing complexes. An acquaintance of mine reported upon his return from a recent trip his amazement at a factory he had witnessed in China. Having expected to see the equivalent of thousands of sweat-shop laborers manually producing parts as cheaply as possible in some dark and dreary factory, he was instead surprised to see a brand new, clean, and thoroughly modern manufacturing center, with production robots, and a few skilled laborers. Now think about how many products we purchase that are manufactured overseas. You're starting to get the picture?
All that production is increasing the standard of living in many of these previously "developing" countries, and their citizens are demanding more modern convenienes to go along. Automobiles, whose manufacturing process is based on the Japanese model, are now being produced in record numbers in places like India and China, for their native populations. GM, and other major automotive manufacturers, like Volkswagen, are pouring major investment dollars into these markets, viewing them as the next great frontier, upon which their future survival and success depends. And what is powering all these new cars? That's right - gasoline. As the two most populous nations start driving, demand for oil will increase exponentially.
As it is, however, there are reports that production is near maxed out in the Middle East, and in other regions. They can't pull the oil out of the ground any faster. If production can't be increased significantly, but demand rises significantly, prices are sure to follow that demand.
Here in the U.S., we're not doing much to help ourselves. A new refinery hasn't been built in ages, and the existing plants are struggling under the weight of aging systems, technology, and regulation. Not only that, but those plants must produce different fuel combinations for different regions, seriously limiting market flexibility here at home. That's one of the reasons gas prices in California outpace those in Iowa. There are many other factors, which are too complicated to give proper treatment to here, such as the effects of ethanol, and taxes, which also play a significant role.
Bottom line, gas prices aren't going to come down anytime soon, and even worse, probably won't even stabilize for a while. Yes, with expanding markets for the oil companies, allowing them to sell more fuel to more people than ever before; even if they lowered their profit margins - their overall profitability would surely increase, just due to increased sales volume. And so they will reap record profits. That's how capitalism works.
Americans need to wake up to the fact that we are no longer the only consumers of technology and convenience in the world anymore; and that with demand for the finer things in life across the planet, we are going to have to work harder, and become more competitive in order to maintain our standard of living. To stay ahead, we cannot rest on our past success in a mire of complacency, but must develop new fuels, and new sources of energy to propel us forward. We must find a new manufacturing base, for without that valuable developmental environment, we lose the human resources that emerge from its ranks, its springboard of invention and innovation, and the skills that bring them forth. We need to rediscover the building blocks upon which we achieved our prominent position on the world stage.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Continuing the Healthcare Conversation
The end result is a system that can't get out of it's own way. Insurers do a poor job of providing protection. Employers feel an escalating burden from their healthcare obligations. Doctors are being hit even harder; increased risk to their livelihood, combined with decreased financial incentive from educational, insurance, and administrative cost escalation, is pushing physicians out of fields they are otherwise inclined to, or forcing them to abandon their practice altogether. So where does that leave the patients? We are left with fewer choices about our coverage, trapped with an employer to maintain coverage, fewer available physicians to treat us, and the serious risk of financial ruin if we get sick. Seems to me, the only group making out in all this is...the lawyers. Didn't John Edwards just build himself a 20,000 sq.ft. mansion? No wonder he feels so guilty about "two Americas".
So how do we get out of this? It is somewhat understandable that many doctors, who feel that they have been yolked with an unfair amount of the burden (which they have), would prefer a single payor, "universal healthcare" system administered by the government, as it would lift much of the insurance and administrative burdens off of their shoulders, and redistribute it among the population (through the form of much higher taxes), as would some overstretched employers currently trying to keep their heads above water. However, that is a particularly short-sighted view, since, instead of paying higher rates to insurers and office personnel in order to administer the programs, that money will instead be fed to the government and its bureaucrats at higher and higher rates every year. Anybody who thinks the government is going to manage that money wisely to sustain the program, must be living under a rock, and have never heard of that great government program called S o c i a l S e c u r i t y. Nevermind the fact that, while we are not all doctors, or employers, we are all patients at various points in our life, and such a federally administered system will certainly not improve our healthcare, but more likely, make it much worse. No, "universal healthcare" is not the answer.
Instead, I think we should take a serious look at a two-pronged approach. First, health insurance policies must become like life, home, and auto policies - written for, and paid by, the individual. If my employer wants to offer me a health benefit, or otherwise, an incentive, to carry adequate health insurance, then that employer should be able to offer an untaxed amount of their choosing, say for example, up to $300 per month, towards my health insurance premiums. Therefore, regardless of the claims one employee makes relative to another (which is none of the employers business anyway), their contributed benefit remains under their control. Just like many employers offer a contribution towards an employees personal mobile phone at a "to not exceed" rate, rather than paying for the service in full and trying to limit it's useage, this approach would work in much the same way.
The second part to this approach, untaxed medical savings accounts, must also be greatly expanded. By building up an account, moving in a direction towards being self-insured, we become less beholden to our insurers, and gain even greater freedom over our own healtcare, or the care of our families. Again, it should also be available to employers who would like to offer a health benefit - to make a matching contribution, or a contribution of their own denomination, tax-free, to their employees accounts, if they so choose.
The approach I'm describing works much the same way any other insurance does. If a person limits their risky behavior, they are rewarded with lower rates. Eating healthy, exercising, and getting enough sleep, in other words; living cleanly, will have its rewards. If however, you still get sick, your insurance company will provide coverage to rescue you from financial disaster. Also, routine medical expenses such as checkups and prescriptions would be paid out of pocket, much as one pays for gas, oil changes, and tires on their car, which will inevitably result in much more competitive rates for these health services and prescriptions. This will result in a significantly lowered administrative burden on physicians, who will have less paperwork to process with insurance companies, as well as give them more freedom to run their practices as they see fit, being dictated to much less by those same insurance companies.
That is of course, if we decide to enact effective tort reform at the same time. The effect of this reform cannot be underestimated, as it would have the most dramatic result of all in reducing the cost of healthcare, and increasing its quality. A dramatic reduction in unnecessary procedures and tests would be one such contribution; cutting costs dramatically, and giving doctors more diagnostic authority. Insurance premiums for doctors could be reduced significantly, offering an incentive for certain practitioners, especially Ob/Gyns to return to practice. And, there should be less litigation, as the incentive to sue will have been reduced.
How we get from where we are, to where we need to be, will be difficult, and if our nation can't be convinced in a great enough majority, it may be impossible. Political opponents on the left need this to continue as a hot button issue in order to achieve their goal of a "universal" government run healthcare program. As conservatives, we must start talking about this issue, and about positive solutions to the problem, because right now the Left seems to own the issue. We must show that we are not the party of the "status quo", but that we have great ideas to reform our systems, and improve the lives of citizens. What do you think?